An Earth System Model Envisions High Future Global Temperatures | Henry Auer

Mar 18th, 2013 | By | Category: General

Prinn, Sokolov and a Massachusetts Institute of Technology research group have developed an Integrated Global System Model for future climate development. The model constructs computational modules that describe interactions between the physical world, and human economic and social activity, in order to project future climate conditions using probabilistic methods.

Five scenarios are devised, ranging from the absence of any policy that mitigates greenhouse gas emissions to a stringent policy constraining the total atmospheric concentration of all greenhouse gases to a relatively low level by the year 2100. The model projects probabilities for limiting further global temperature increases for each scenario. For example, in the absence of any abatement policy temperatures are likely to increase by 3.5ºC to 7.4ºC above the level of 1981-2000 by the decade 2091 to 2100. Emission limits of increasing stringency not only lower predicted mean temperature increases but also project decreased probabilities especially for the largest temperature changes.

Prinn further presents an economic risk analysis that shows that investing early in mitigation minimizes future economic harms arising from extreme weather and climate events that further warming generates. The financial return on this class of investments is high.

Long-term increases in global temperatures originate from human activities in most developed and developing countries around the world. All these countries should unite to adopt emission abatement policies to minimize further global warming and its harmful consequences.

For more on this story, visit: Global Warming Blog by Henry Auer.

Be Sociable, Share!
Tags: ,

Leave a Comment